๐Ÿ“ฐ๋น„์ฆˆ๋‹ˆ์Šค๐Ÿ“ฐ ์‚ฌ์—…์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์กฐ์–ธ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ƒ์กด ํŽธํ–ฅ (a smart bear) ์‚ฌ์—…์„ ์šด์˜ํ•˜๋‹ค ๋ณด๋‹ˆ, ์ž์—ฐ์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ์‚ฌ์—…์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์กฐ์–ธ์„ ๋Š˜์ƒ ์ฐพ๊ณค ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์จ์„œ ์ž˜ ๋๋‹ค๋”๋ผ, ์ € ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ์ €๋Ÿฐ ์ „๋žต์œผ๋กœ ์„ฑ์žฅํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋”๋ผ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์š”. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ €์ž๋Š” '์„ฑ๊ณต ์‚ฌ๋ก€๋งŒ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์‚ฌ์—…์„ ๋ฐฐ์šฐ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๊ทธ๊ฑด ๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ํฐ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋‹ค'๋ผ๊ณ  ์–˜๊ธฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. '์•„๋‹ˆ, ์„ฑ๊ณต ์‚ฌ๋ก€์—์„œ ๋ฐฐ์›Œ์•ผ์ง€ ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ์–ด๋””์—์„œ ๋ฐฐ์šฐ๋‚˜์š”?' ํ•˜๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐ์ด ๋“œ๋Š” ๋ถ„์ด๋ผ๋ฉด, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ์ž๋ฃŒ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉฐ ๊ฒฝ๊ฐ์‹ฌ์„ ์ผ๊นจ์›Œ ๋ณผ ๋งŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. - ์ง ์ฝœ๋ฆฐ์Šค์˜ 2001๋…„ ์ €์„œ <Good to Great>์—์„œ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•œ 11๊ฐœ์˜ "์œ„๋Œ€ํ•œ(Great)" ๊ธฐ์—…์— 2001๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด, S&P 500 ์ง€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋ฐ‘๋„๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ต๋ฅ ์„ ์–ป์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 11๊ฐœ ๊ธฐ์—… ์ค‘์—๋Š” Fannie Mae์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด ์™„์ „ํžˆ ๋ง๊ฐ€์ง„ ๊ธฐ์—…๋„ ๋‘ ๊ณณ ์žˆ๊ณ ์š”. - ํ†ฐ ํ”ผํ„ฐ์Šค์˜ ์ €์„œ <์ดˆ์šฐ๋Ÿ‰ ๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ์กฐ๊ฑด>์—์„œ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•œ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์— ํˆฌ์žํ–ˆ์–ด๋„ ๋งˆ์ฐฌ๊ฐ€์ง€์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์–ป์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๊ธ€์—์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ตํ›ˆ์€ '๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํšŒ์‚ฌ์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ก€๋Š” ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ์‚ฌ๋ก€ ์ •๋„๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด์•ผ์ง€, ๊ทธ๊ฑธ ์ฒ ์„๊ฐ™์ด ๋ฏฟ๊ณ  ๋ณต์Œ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ ค ํ•˜๋ฉด ์•ˆ ๋œ๋‹ค'๋ผ๋Š” ์ ์ผ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์—…์˜ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ฑ์„ ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ชซ์ด๋‹ˆ๊นŒ์š”. (ํ•œ๊ตญ์–ด ๋ฒˆ์—ญ: https://papago.naver.net/website?locale=ko&source=en&target=ko&url=https://blog.asmartbear.com/business-advice-plagued-by-survivor-bias.html)

Business Advice Plagued by Survivor Bias

ASmartBear

Business Advice Plagued by Survivor Bias

๋‹ค์Œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์ด ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด?

๋˜๋Š”

์ด๋ฏธ ํšŒ์›์ด์‹ ๊ฐ€์š”?

2020๋…„ 6์›” 25์ผ ์˜ค์ „ 10:58

๋Œ“๊ธ€ 0




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