๐Ÿ’ก์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ๐Ÿ’ก ์ ˆ์‹คํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์›ํ•˜๋ฉด, ๋น—๋‚˜๊ฐ„ ์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (Morgan Housel) ์ด ๊ธ€์˜ ์ œ๋ชฉ์€ <์˜ˆ์ธก์˜ ์‹ฌ๋ฆฌํ•™(The Psychology of Prediction)>์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์˜ˆ์ธก์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฐ์ข… ํŽธํ–ฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ €์ž๊ฐ€ ์–˜๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š” ํฌ์ธํŠธ ํ•˜๋‚˜ ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€ ๋งˆ์Œ์— ์ฝ•์ฝ• ๋ฐ•ํž™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๋ฉด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ: "์‹ ๋ขฐ์„ฑ์€ ๊ณต์ •ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค(Credibility is not impartial). ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ์–ด๋–ค ์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ๋ฏฟ๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋Š” ์˜ํ–ฅ์€, ๋‹น์‹ ์ด ๊ทธ ์˜ˆ์ธก์ด ๋งž๊ธธ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋Š” ์ •๋„์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›๋Š”๋‹ค." ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ํ•  ๋•Œ๋ฉด, ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ์ •์ด ์‚ฌ์—…์— ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ ธ์˜ฌ์ง€ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋งŒํผ์˜ ์ž„ํŒฉํŠธ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์„์ง€, ์„ฑ๊ณต ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์€ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋ ์ง€, ์‹คํŒจํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ƒ๊ธธ์ง€ ๋“ฑ๋“ฑ... ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ €๋Š” ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•œ ์ผ์ด ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•˜๊ธธ ๋ฐ”๋ž๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ์™„๋ฒฝํžˆ ๊ณต์ •ํ•œ ์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ €๋Š” ์ œ ๊ฒฐ์ •์ด ์ข‹์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‚ผ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ํŽธํ–ฅ๋œ ์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ํ•ด ์™”์„ ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ , ์•„๋งˆ ์•ž์œผ๋กœ๋„ ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํŽธํ–ฅ์„ ์–ด์ฐŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ์ข‹์„์ง€๋Š” ์ž˜ ๋ชจ๋ฅด๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํŽธํ–ฅ์ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ธ์ง€ํ•˜๋ฉด ์ข‹์€ ์˜์‚ฌ๊ฒฐ์ •์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ์กฐ๊ธˆ์€ ๋„์›€์ด ๋˜๊ฒ ์ฃ . (ํ•œ๊ตญ์–ด ๋ฒˆ์—ญ: https://papago.naver.net/website?locale=ko&source=en&target=ko&url=https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-prediction/ )

The Psychology of Prediction

Collaborative Fund

The Psychology of Prediction

๋‹ค์Œ ๋‚ด์šฉ์ด ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด?

๋˜๋Š”

์ด๋ฏธ ํšŒ์›์ด์‹ ๊ฐ€์š”?

2020๋…„ 6์›” 21์ผ ์˜ค์ „ 8:30

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